The price of light sweet crude reached new highs today at over $58 a barrel. For those of you who followed my advice in my March 23rd blog entry 'Oil Investments' will have made a nice 20% gain on XLE (Energy ETF). In that entry, I suggested accumulating shares of XLE when a barrel of oil corrects below $38. Oil retreated during the months of April and May and by mid-May, Oil was below $38. XLE fell below $37 on May 16th and today closed at $45.84.
My prediction is that oil will continue its streak and peak beyond $60 before retreating back to the low 50's. People have to understand that the days of cheap oil are days gone by. We have to get used to living in a world with high energy prices in a larger 10-15 year commodities boom cycle. We are in a demand driven oil boom with tight supplies. Add in the terrorism factor and natural oil disruption factor (such as hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico), we get the high prices of oil we have today.
In the past Saudi Arabia has had the ability to significantly increase their oil production overnight. This is no longer the case: at least not with sweet crude. They are able to increase the production of sour crude only. What is the difference? Sweet crude is more expensive than sour crude and the problem is that most refineries in the USA does not have the infrastructure to refine sour crude. The end result is that sour crude supply may increase but it will not affect increases of price at the pump.
This handicap at most refineries creates a huge opportunity for refineries that can refine sour crude as the gap between sweet and sour crude prices widen. They are able to sell the final petroleum products at the same high prices as others while purchasing their crude at a discount.
One of the biggest sour crude capable refiner in the US is Valero Energy (VLO). This stock has risen from as low as $56 from the sell off in May to the current $80. This company has a great balance sheet, good management and leveraged to the price of oil. I would recommend picking up shares when oil pulls back as anticipated in the near future.
Friday, June 17, 2005
Monday, May 16, 2005
Collusion in Real estate?
The information super highway has dramatically upended the way many businesses operate: particularly profit margins. Retailers now have to compete with online retailers and eBay. The competition drives prices down and the consumer wins. Stock brokers have to compete with online brokers with trading costs that are a fraction of what they used to be. Again, the consumer wins. Auto salesmen now have to compete with previously unavailable information to the public such as manufacturer rebates and dealer costs. They can no longer charge outrageous prices because consumers know when they are getting ripped off.
These are only three examples. But how about the real estate industry? In the US, real estate agents charge a 6% fee on the closing price. In Canada, agents charge 7% on the first $100,000 and 1.5% on the remaining balance. These fees have not dropped and those in the industry continue to enjoy such fat margins. The question I have in my mind is how this strong hold has resisted what so many other industries could not. I speculate some possible reasons:
- Selling and buying homes are very personal. The crew on Fox's 'Cavuto on Business' jumped on guest Tom (a real estate agent) this week about the non competitiveness of the industry. Tom argued that buyers and sellers get security because agents can screen the buyers. He also argued that commissions have dropped from 6% to 5% but that is despite the average home value rising from $200K to $800K
- Selling a home is unlike selling stocks. The buyer has to enter and view the home. This aspect cannot be done online.
- Listings online are limited
- The industry is doing whatever it can to maintain the status quo by minimizing the possibility of competition
The realestate market has been booming the last 4 years. When everyone is making money, they don't necessarily question the fees that they have to pay. However, as the market slows and less profit is made, people will begin to question the value that they got for the fees that they paid. This is especially true for homes that practically sold by themselves the day they were listed.
The boom has also encouraged many to become agents. This will increase the competition and lower prices. 1% flat agent fees have already begun to be popular and this should become the norm in the future. A slowing market should also result in slashing fees as more agents fight for reduced deals.
These are only three examples. But how about the real estate industry? In the US, real estate agents charge a 6% fee on the closing price. In Canada, agents charge 7% on the first $100,000 and 1.5% on the remaining balance. These fees have not dropped and those in the industry continue to enjoy such fat margins. The question I have in my mind is how this strong hold has resisted what so many other industries could not. I speculate some possible reasons:
- Selling and buying homes are very personal. The crew on Fox's 'Cavuto on Business' jumped on guest Tom (a real estate agent) this week about the non competitiveness of the industry. Tom argued that buyers and sellers get security because agents can screen the buyers. He also argued that commissions have dropped from 6% to 5% but that is despite the average home value rising from $200K to $800K
- Selling a home is unlike selling stocks. The buyer has to enter and view the home. This aspect cannot be done online.
- Listings online are limited
- The industry is doing whatever it can to maintain the status quo by minimizing the possibility of competition
The realestate market has been booming the last 4 years. When everyone is making money, they don't necessarily question the fees that they have to pay. However, as the market slows and less profit is made, people will begin to question the value that they got for the fees that they paid. This is especially true for homes that practically sold by themselves the day they were listed.
The boom has also encouraged many to become agents. This will increase the competition and lower prices. 1% flat agent fees have already begun to be popular and this should become the norm in the future. A slowing market should also result in slashing fees as more agents fight for reduced deals.
Thursday, April 28, 2005
Jim Rogers - Riverside Conversation 2
I've got some great stuff here. A thought provoking conversation between Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Anthony Burgmans on the economies of Europe and where they may be heading. This cannot be missed!
Go here. And click on the video link on the right (the second one down is the high bandwidth video)
Find out about Jim Rogers here.
Find out about Marc Faber here.
Go here. And click on the video link on the right (the second one down is the high bandwidth video)
Find out about Jim Rogers here.
Find out about Marc Faber here.
Thursday, April 21, 2005
Whiplash
Feeling some pain in the back of your neck? That's how I feel after the whipsaw action in the markets this week. Down big one day and then up big the next. If you are trying to time this market - good luck. I don't think anyone can and I pity the TV commentators who have to change their tone everyday. Sounding bullish on one and bearish on another. What I don't like are analysts who caution viewers not to buy after a bad day and then say 'I told you to buy' after an up day.
A recap of the whipsaw action the past five trading days:
Friday - Markets down big. DOW down 191 pts, Nasdaq down 40 pts. This was capitulation but many thought this was only the first stage of capitulation and that a second and final sell off would take the DOW down to 9800 pts.
Monday - Markets ended flat. The bounce that some predicted did not happen. Maybe this was just a break before the second leg down.
Tuesday - UP day! DOW up over 50 pts and Nasdaq up 20pts. Maybe we are out of the woods? Maybe the bottom has been reached on Friday.......but wait...
Wednesday - SELL! Big down day. DOW down 115 pts and Nasdaq down 20 pts.
Thursday - HUGE up day! Biggest up day since the year 2003. DOW up 206 pts and Nasdaq up 48 pts!
What is going on? Are you feeling dizzy yet? Pessimism was rampant in March with fears of inflation, rising Fed rates, decreasing corporate profits. Negativity everywhere. IBM's poor earnings and apples estimates miss last week were oil on fire.
This week, Intel had great earnings. Followed by Yahoo, EMC and Google. These companies beat estimates and raised guidance. Hey, maybe the economy ain't so bad after all?
I'm excited to see what tomorrow brings.
A recap of the whipsaw action the past five trading days:
Friday - Markets down big. DOW down 191 pts, Nasdaq down 40 pts. This was capitulation but many thought this was only the first stage of capitulation and that a second and final sell off would take the DOW down to 9800 pts.
Monday - Markets ended flat. The bounce that some predicted did not happen. Maybe this was just a break before the second leg down.
Tuesday - UP day! DOW up over 50 pts and Nasdaq up 20pts. Maybe we are out of the woods? Maybe the bottom has been reached on Friday.......but wait...
Wednesday - SELL! Big down day. DOW down 115 pts and Nasdaq down 20 pts.
Thursday - HUGE up day! Biggest up day since the year 2003. DOW up 206 pts and Nasdaq up 48 pts!
What is going on? Are you feeling dizzy yet? Pessimism was rampant in March with fears of inflation, rising Fed rates, decreasing corporate profits. Negativity everywhere. IBM's poor earnings and apples estimates miss last week were oil on fire.
This week, Intel had great earnings. Followed by Yahoo, EMC and Google. These companies beat estimates and raised guidance. Hey, maybe the economy ain't so bad after all?
I'm excited to see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
How quickly things change in the stock market. Just last Friday the markets tanked with the DOW dropping 191 points. Voices screaming 'sell! sell!' and 'economy is falling of the cliff' could be heard from the myriad of market bears. This week, a ray of warm sun light has landed on the markets and they are looking good so far with solid earnings coming out of Texas Instruments and Intel. If you sold on Friday then you really need more patience. Patience is gold for anyone wishing to win in this market. In fact, you need nerves of steel.
I have come to the conclusion that with the introduction of online trading and ever improving trading technologies available, trading has become easier, faster and more accessible. As a result, markets have become more volatile with wilder gyrations. The volatility comes faster and goes away faster than ever before. Markets can now have huge swings from overvalue to undervalue in the matter of days. The folks at CNBC giving daily commentaries can barely catch up!
This week is shaping up to be a good week for the technologies. The semiconductors in particular should have a nice bounce tomorrow. If you hold these stocks then I caution that you sell into strength this week because the outlook for the sector is still weak for the rest of the year.
I have come to the conclusion that with the introduction of online trading and ever improving trading technologies available, trading has become easier, faster and more accessible. As a result, markets have become more volatile with wilder gyrations. The volatility comes faster and goes away faster than ever before. Markets can now have huge swings from overvalue to undervalue in the matter of days. The folks at CNBC giving daily commentaries can barely catch up!
This week is shaping up to be a good week for the technologies. The semiconductors in particular should have a nice bounce tomorrow. If you hold these stocks then I caution that you sell into strength this week because the outlook for the sector is still weak for the rest of the year.
Friday, April 15, 2005
Anticipating a tough day
After IBM's disappointing earnings announcement, everyone is expecting a tough tough day tomorrow in the markets.
After market open in Europe this morning, a commentator on CNBC World, looking at the down market numbers across Europe said to viewers - 'If you are long in the market, go take a break, lie down and take an aspirin'.
Golden words of wisdom.
After market open in Europe this morning, a commentator on CNBC World, looking at the down market numbers across Europe said to viewers - 'If you are long in the market, go take a break, lie down and take an aspirin'.
Golden words of wisdom.
Thursday, April 14, 2005
Bitter Sweet Apple Earnings
What a tough market. Apple reported earnings after market close yesterday beating estimates and showing sequential growth and higher revenues. But Apple stocks fall and are now trading at $37 falling from $41 before earnings release.
Sometimes, markets are all about expectations and reality and where the two meet. When a stock has low expectations but releases good numbers in reality, it rises. In the case of Apple, expectations have ballooned so big that even a great reality is not great enough. So the stock sells off.
I believe the core of the issue is that although ipod sales have gone up 16%, profit margins have fallen 16%. This means that although they are selling more, they are having to reduce prices to do so. In addition, the halo effect of ipod owners buying MACs have not yet materialized with MAC sales increasing only 2%.
Sit tight, this apple ride is very bumpy.
Sometimes, markets are all about expectations and reality and where the two meet. When a stock has low expectations but releases good numbers in reality, it rises. In the case of Apple, expectations have ballooned so big that even a great reality is not great enough. So the stock sells off.
I believe the core of the issue is that although ipod sales have gone up 16%, profit margins have fallen 16%. This means that although they are selling more, they are having to reduce prices to do so. In addition, the halo effect of ipod owners buying MACs have not yet materialized with MAC sales increasing only 2%.
Sit tight, this apple ride is very bumpy.
Monday, April 11, 2005
Investing in Apple Computers
Jim Cramer from CNBC's Mad Money thinks that Apple Computers earning report will be good this week. He also thinks they will give good guidance.
Apple has doubled over the last 6 months riding on the tremendous success of the IPOD. IPOD and accessories sales are now half of Apple's total sales!
Most understand that the IPOD will not and can not rule forever. Competition from Creative Labs and other manufacturers are heating up and prices are sure to fall. It is however the halo effect of the IPOD that will bring fortunes to Apple. Many believe that a high percentage of IPOD owners are likely to switch to the MAC from the PC. This will drive Apples future growth.
I personally won't be switching to MACs anytime soon, but I can understand why many would. MACs are good looking and trouble free - a great combo for most users.
For these reasons, I believe Apple would be a good trade at least for the short term to take it a few points higher.
Apple has doubled over the last 6 months riding on the tremendous success of the IPOD. IPOD and accessories sales are now half of Apple's total sales!
Most understand that the IPOD will not and can not rule forever. Competition from Creative Labs and other manufacturers are heating up and prices are sure to fall. It is however the halo effect of the IPOD that will bring fortunes to Apple. Many believe that a high percentage of IPOD owners are likely to switch to the MAC from the PC. This will drive Apples future growth.
I personally won't be switching to MACs anytime soon, but I can understand why many would. MACs are good looking and trouble free - a great combo for most users.
For these reasons, I believe Apple would be a good trade at least for the short term to take it a few points higher.
Thursday, April 07, 2005
Investments: Buy Energy Sell real estate
Winds of change are constantly blowing on our economy into different directions. What direction the economy ends up taking is difficult to see day to day. But slowly the trend becomes visible akin the pattern of the sands on the beach.
Some indisputable truths are visible: Energy prices are increasing, interest rates are increasing, inflation is increasing, real estate has been on a tear upwards for the last 3 years.
Before I continue further, let me remind you that all markets go in cycles. Nothing goes up forever and nothing goes down forever. Bubbles form when crowds become irrational and chase for profits. Bust cycles follow with people who chased the tail end getting burned the most.
Energy prices are going to go up for the long term. Oil in the $20-30 dollar range will never be seen again in our lifetimes because exploration costs and refining costs alone are above $25 a barrel. Add the increasing global demand from emerging markets (China, India etc) and you can see why both supply (decreasing) and demand (increasing) is going to push prices to knew highs.
In the short-term, oil may retreat. That I anticipate. Oil related stocks and investments have gone up quickly recently and a correction should be around the corner. Nothing ever goes straight up. But in the long term, buy energy.
Interest rates are increasing and it has to stomp inflation. There has been a lot of speculation on housing with people flipping condos and houses like stocks. This has largely been fueled by the low interest rates. But as the rates increase, demand will slow. The overblown bubble will burst. People stretched on their mortgages with a tiny down payment and floating rates will get hurt the most. Its unfortunate that such events happen but history shows it always happen when people flock to a place where there seems to be endless flows of easy money. If you own several homes hoping to flip them, I advise you sell them while the market is still good because by the time the masses see the bubble bursting, they will be flooding to the emergency exits and those slow to move will get tramped on amidst the frenzy.
Recession?
Yes, the horrible R word. I don't know for sure if we will be entering a period of recession in the near future but there is a possibility. Higher oil prices affect everything that we do beyond just at the gas pump. Food gets more expensive to produce, transportation of goods get more expensive, utility bills increase, holidays get more expensive - EVERYTHING becomes more expensive. What's the immediate result? People spend less. The economy slows.
Spending slows, people hold back in buying that new condo, they go to the mall less and they go to restaurants less. The weekly high prices they pay at the pump decreases their appetite to spend.
The cost of businesses due to higher energy prices also increases. Combined with slowing spending, companies may close shop or would need to cut cost and unfortunately workers lose their jobs. This viscous cycle continues.
Could all this trigger a global recession? Possible. Slowing spending in the west would hurt many economies around the world including China and India whom sells most of their goods here. The world's economies are intricately bonded to each other.
The end result is be very careful and diligent with your investments. We are entering a difficult period.
Some indisputable truths are visible: Energy prices are increasing, interest rates are increasing, inflation is increasing, real estate has been on a tear upwards for the last 3 years.
Before I continue further, let me remind you that all markets go in cycles. Nothing goes up forever and nothing goes down forever. Bubbles form when crowds become irrational and chase for profits. Bust cycles follow with people who chased the tail end getting burned the most.
Energy prices are going to go up for the long term. Oil in the $20-30 dollar range will never be seen again in our lifetimes because exploration costs and refining costs alone are above $25 a barrel. Add the increasing global demand from emerging markets (China, India etc) and you can see why both supply (decreasing) and demand (increasing) is going to push prices to knew highs.
In the short-term, oil may retreat. That I anticipate. Oil related stocks and investments have gone up quickly recently and a correction should be around the corner. Nothing ever goes straight up. But in the long term, buy energy.
Interest rates are increasing and it has to stomp inflation. There has been a lot of speculation on housing with people flipping condos and houses like stocks. This has largely been fueled by the low interest rates. But as the rates increase, demand will slow. The overblown bubble will burst. People stretched on their mortgages with a tiny down payment and floating rates will get hurt the most. Its unfortunate that such events happen but history shows it always happen when people flock to a place where there seems to be endless flows of easy money. If you own several homes hoping to flip them, I advise you sell them while the market is still good because by the time the masses see the bubble bursting, they will be flooding to the emergency exits and those slow to move will get tramped on amidst the frenzy.
Recession?
Yes, the horrible R word. I don't know for sure if we will be entering a period of recession in the near future but there is a possibility. Higher oil prices affect everything that we do beyond just at the gas pump. Food gets more expensive to produce, transportation of goods get more expensive, utility bills increase, holidays get more expensive - EVERYTHING becomes more expensive. What's the immediate result? People spend less. The economy slows.
Spending slows, people hold back in buying that new condo, they go to the mall less and they go to restaurants less. The weekly high prices they pay at the pump decreases their appetite to spend.
The cost of businesses due to higher energy prices also increases. Combined with slowing spending, companies may close shop or would need to cut cost and unfortunately workers lose their jobs. This viscous cycle continues.
Could all this trigger a global recession? Possible. Slowing spending in the west would hurt many economies around the world including China and India whom sells most of their goods here. The world's economies are intricately bonded to each other.
The end result is be very careful and diligent with your investments. We are entering a difficult period.
Friday, March 25, 2005
Jim Rogers' daughter learns Chinese
I'm a fan of Jim Rogers as you probably know by now so I certainly cannot miss sharing with you a Business Week article that I've found. A little old from 2004 but interesting nonetheless. If you are interested in Jim Rogers and his investment ideas, be sure to check this out.
Jim Rogers' Home Truths
Jim Rogers' Home Truths
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Oil investments
By now you should have heard and seen the rising oil prices. As I write this, oil is at $56 a barrel. Some believe that oil is clearly overpriced while others feel it will go even higher.
No doubt high oil prices have a negative effect on the economy. Businesses cost more to run, people spend more money on gas and less in consumer products and overall sales and profits fall.
Oil bears argue that oil have risen too much based on speculation. Oil Bulls argue that although oil prices are high, it is still low historically on an inflation adjusted basis.
I am on the oil bull camp. Oil may have a short to medium term adjustment back to about $45 a barrel but it will never reach the $30 again. The reasons are many but for one, most of the 'easy to acquire' oil from the existing oil wells have been drained. The cost to acquire the remaining oil has risen to $22-$25 per barrel and new oil exploration has also diminished. Add the fact that China and India are fast becoming huge oil importers, buying up all excess capacity that used to act as a price cushion for increased demand in the west . The thirst for oil in China and India is expected to continue to increase for the foreseeable future.
As investors, where can we direct our investments? My advise is to invest selectively in oil stocks. An oil ETF (Exchange traded fund) I recommend is XLE with a very low expense ratio (0.27). XLE has large holdings in many oil stocks such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron Texaco. It has risen over 20% already in 2005. It is trading above $43 and I would start to accumulate below $38 on a pull back.
An adjustment in oil price is normal and expected by about June when the US government will make available some of the 700 million barrels of reserves to help curb prices. They however cannot fight the underlying fundamentals for long and the trend in higher oil prices will continue to increase in the long run.
I will share with you about other oil investment possibilities in my next blog entry.
Good luck investing!
No doubt high oil prices have a negative effect on the economy. Businesses cost more to run, people spend more money on gas and less in consumer products and overall sales and profits fall.
Oil bears argue that oil have risen too much based on speculation. Oil Bulls argue that although oil prices are high, it is still low historically on an inflation adjusted basis.
I am on the oil bull camp. Oil may have a short to medium term adjustment back to about $45 a barrel but it will never reach the $30 again. The reasons are many but for one, most of the 'easy to acquire' oil from the existing oil wells have been drained. The cost to acquire the remaining oil has risen to $22-$25 per barrel and new oil exploration has also diminished. Add the fact that China and India are fast becoming huge oil importers, buying up all excess capacity that used to act as a price cushion for increased demand in the west . The thirst for oil in China and India is expected to continue to increase for the foreseeable future.
As investors, where can we direct our investments? My advise is to invest selectively in oil stocks. An oil ETF (Exchange traded fund) I recommend is XLE with a very low expense ratio (0.27). XLE has large holdings in many oil stocks such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron Texaco. It has risen over 20% already in 2005. It is trading above $43 and I would start to accumulate below $38 on a pull back.
An adjustment in oil price is normal and expected by about June when the US government will make available some of the 700 million barrels of reserves to help curb prices. They however cannot fight the underlying fundamentals for long and the trend in higher oil prices will continue to increase in the long run.
I will share with you about other oil investment possibilities in my next blog entry.
Good luck investing!
Friday, March 11, 2005
Surprise--Gates is still world's richest person | CNET News.com
Want to see who the billionaires are according to the latest data from Forbes? Maybe our investments will take us there some day....;)
Surprise--Gates is still world's richest person | CNET News.com
Surprise--Gates is still world's richest person | CNET News.com
Tuesday, March 08, 2005
Rejection, argument, anger and finally acceptance
I'd like to share an excerpt with you today:
".....I am reminded of the various stages of grief: rejection, argument, anger, and acceptance. It is true of terminal disease and the progress of great ideas as well. When somebody first comes up with a new idea, everybody ignores it. Then people ridicule it, coming up with vehement arguments against it, before arriving at acceptance and support. Then not only do they find themselves explaining why it is a good idea; they go on to say, 'Yeah, I thought of it.' It has been proved to be true though out history and is true of politics, economics and warfare. General Billy Mitchell was drummed out of the service in the 1920s for claiming the aircraft carrier was the wave of the future. Nobody remembers that now, of course, certainly not the people in the armed forces".
-Jim Rogers, in 'Adventure Capitalist'
Why is it that new and great ideas are always met with ridicule and rejection? History is laden with great men whom introduced radical new ideas, only to be shamed and accused of heresy.
Galileo, in the early 16th century, proved through his scientific research that the Sun did not revolve around the earth. Instead, he proposed that the Sun is in the centre while the Earth rotates on itself and moves around it. We all know this today as common sense but Galileo was found guilty for proposing such heresy and condemned to lifelong imprisonment.
When people hear a new idea that doesn't affect them, they greet it with indifference. However, if it does affect them, they greet it with rejection and argument because it changes their world. It is unfamiliar and it makes them uncomfortable. It creates a feeling of insecurity.
These emotions are followed by anger. An emotional reaction against the person whose idea has threatened to disrupt their world (as in the case of Galileo condemned guilty).
Finally, after the evidence is undeniable, the once radical idea is accepted as fact. In some cases, the same people who most violently rejected the idea now claim the idea to be theirs. It is too bad that this type of human behavior keeps repeating itself. Would we ever change? I often have to fight my natural tendencies to reject new ideas and instead to keep an open mind. How open minded are you?
".....I am reminded of the various stages of grief: rejection, argument, anger, and acceptance. It is true of terminal disease and the progress of great ideas as well. When somebody first comes up with a new idea, everybody ignores it. Then people ridicule it, coming up with vehement arguments against it, before arriving at acceptance and support. Then not only do they find themselves explaining why it is a good idea; they go on to say, 'Yeah, I thought of it.' It has been proved to be true though out history and is true of politics, economics and warfare. General Billy Mitchell was drummed out of the service in the 1920s for claiming the aircraft carrier was the wave of the future. Nobody remembers that now, of course, certainly not the people in the armed forces".
-Jim Rogers, in 'Adventure Capitalist'
Why is it that new and great ideas are always met with ridicule and rejection? History is laden with great men whom introduced radical new ideas, only to be shamed and accused of heresy.
Galileo, in the early 16th century, proved through his scientific research that the Sun did not revolve around the earth. Instead, he proposed that the Sun is in the centre while the Earth rotates on itself and moves around it. We all know this today as common sense but Galileo was found guilty for proposing such heresy and condemned to lifelong imprisonment.
When people hear a new idea that doesn't affect them, they greet it with indifference. However, if it does affect them, they greet it with rejection and argument because it changes their world. It is unfamiliar and it makes them uncomfortable. It creates a feeling of insecurity.
These emotions are followed by anger. An emotional reaction against the person whose idea has threatened to disrupt their world (as in the case of Galileo condemned guilty).
Finally, after the evidence is undeniable, the once radical idea is accepted as fact. In some cases, the same people who most violently rejected the idea now claim the idea to be theirs. It is too bad that this type of human behavior keeps repeating itself. Would we ever change? I often have to fight my natural tendencies to reject new ideas and instead to keep an open mind. How open minded are you?
Wednesday, March 02, 2005
'Buy quality, and cry once'
I'm in the process of buying a new laptop PC. It is not an easy task to make a choice amongst the myriad of models available. Choosing between different configurations, CPU speeds, memory sizes, LCD sizes, LCD resolutions, wide screen, weight, style, dimensions and robustness. I shall not continue down the list.
I have narrowed down my choices to an IBM Thinkpad. I have always been impressed by the Thinkpads. Ever since I worked for an authorized distributor of IBM, Compaq and HP computers in my first summer job. My responsibilities included installation and occasionally fixing problems. That was not an easy job...but I digress.
For my laptop, I've decided that a 14" display is optimal. Together with a Pentium Centrino M 1.7G CPU, 512M RAM and at least 40GB of Hard disk space. The IBM T42 has this configuration and all in a compact 1" thick sub 5 pounds package. I'm also going to settle for a regular XGA 14" LCD. The higher resolution SXGA+ 14" LCD would be luxurious but I shall not indulge at this time.
Even without the SXGA+ display, the laptop still tops $1500 USD. Ouch. Certainly more expensive than comparable models from competitors. That's the price to pay for the quality of an IBM.
I read a great quote from a user at an IBM Thinkpad forum. A Thinkpad owner, he justified his purchase with a quote that his father taught him when he was young:
"Buy quality, and cry once'
I love this quote.
I have narrowed down my choices to an IBM Thinkpad. I have always been impressed by the Thinkpads. Ever since I worked for an authorized distributor of IBM, Compaq and HP computers in my first summer job. My responsibilities included installation and occasionally fixing problems. That was not an easy job...but I digress.
For my laptop, I've decided that a 14" display is optimal. Together with a Pentium Centrino M 1.7G CPU, 512M RAM and at least 40GB of Hard disk space. The IBM T42 has this configuration and all in a compact 1" thick sub 5 pounds package. I'm also going to settle for a regular XGA 14" LCD. The higher resolution SXGA+ 14" LCD would be luxurious but I shall not indulge at this time.
Even without the SXGA+ display, the laptop still tops $1500 USD. Ouch. Certainly more expensive than comparable models from competitors. That's the price to pay for the quality of an IBM.
I read a great quote from a user at an IBM Thinkpad forum. A Thinkpad owner, he justified his purchase with a quote that his father taught him when he was young:
"Buy quality, and cry once'
I love this quote.
Monday, February 28, 2005
Slowdown in Internet Advertising?
Shares of Yahoo and Google were downgraded on the 24th February by an analyst of Caris & Co. citing a slowdown in paid advertising. Yahoo, Google and Valueclick (vlk) were all hit hard.
What is paid advertising? It is a form of online advertising where Ads appear on search result pages returned by a search engine and the advertisers pay based on the number of clicks. For example, when you search for the term 'Ipod' with Google, it would return a list of websites containing various information on the Ipod. However, on the right side of the page are a list of paid advertising. When you click on the links on those links, the advertisers pay Google. Advertisers buy keywords from Google to have their Ads appear.
Some say paid advertising had reached a bubble top in late 2004 with companies such as Ebay and Amazon buying large numbers of keywords. I suspect that the slowdown in paid advertising is only temporary. Paid advertising is one of the most effective forms of online advertising currently available because it is essentially a pay-as-you-see-results system. Advertisers can theoretically pay nothing if the search engine do not bring potential customers to their doors. Online advertising is going to continue its growth after this short slowdown. This creates a great opportunity to pick up some shares of Yahoo and Google while they are beaten down.
Happy investing!
I'll leave you with a good book I've read with an excellent chapter on Yahoo and their advertising businesses:
What is paid advertising? It is a form of online advertising where Ads appear on search result pages returned by a search engine and the advertisers pay based on the number of clicks. For example, when you search for the term 'Ipod' with Google, it would return a list of websites containing various information on the Ipod. However, on the right side of the page are a list of paid advertising. When you click on the links on those links, the advertisers pay Google. Advertisers buy keywords from Google to have their Ads appear.
Some say paid advertising had reached a bubble top in late 2004 with companies such as Ebay and Amazon buying large numbers of keywords. I suspect that the slowdown in paid advertising is only temporary. Paid advertising is one of the most effective forms of online advertising currently available because it is essentially a pay-as-you-see-results system. Advertisers can theoretically pay nothing if the search engine do not bring potential customers to their doors. Online advertising is going to continue its growth after this short slowdown. This creates a great opportunity to pick up some shares of Yahoo and Google while they are beaten down.
Happy investing!
I'll leave you with a good book I've read with an excellent chapter on Yahoo and their advertising businesses:
Sunday, February 20, 2005
Go Daddy
Did you watch the Super Bowl this year? How about the commercials? It's funny how so many people tune in to the Super Bowl just to watch the commercials. It's big business at 2.4 million for a 30 second clip.
Most of the commercials I've noticed are either beer or automobiles. But one commercial caught many people's attention this year. I'm talking about the raunchy GoDaddy.com commercial that poked fun of Janet Jackson's wardrobe mishap from the previous year.
This was reminiscent of the dotcom days of the late 90's. Could these crazy online companies be at it again spending big money and making no revenue? Hardly I believe.
GoDaddy is just one of many web hosting companies that registers your desired domain name (if available) and offers hosting services for a monthly subscription fee.
There are thousands and thousands of companies offering such services and the competition to gain customers is becoming fierce. Afterall, its an attractive business model with customers paying an on-going fee and relatively low running costs. Customer turnover is low because once a customer has parked his/her website to a hosting company, they feel it is troublesome to change. The competition is fierce to win over customers while it is still cheap to do so.
An analogy sometimes used is trench warfare. In trench warfare (most common in World War 1), armies on both sides would dig deep trenches to position their troops and try to move forward and gain ground towards each other in the midst of heavy gun fire and artillery. Once the trenches are dug and the positions are established, it becomes exponentially harder to gain ground. In a similar fashion, web hosting companies are seeing the growing competition and is trying to establish the best position now.
Beside GoDaddy there are many other strong web hosting companies that are fighting it out as this industry consolidates. Among them are Yahoo Domains, 1and1 and Network Solutions. Have you noticed Yahoo's strategic placement of Yahoo Domain Ads on their front page? This is a sure sign of how seriously Yahoo views this portion of their business.
Most of the commercials I've noticed are either beer or automobiles. But one commercial caught many people's attention this year. I'm talking about the raunchy GoDaddy.com commercial that poked fun of Janet Jackson's wardrobe mishap from the previous year.
This was reminiscent of the dotcom days of the late 90's. Could these crazy online companies be at it again spending big money and making no revenue? Hardly I believe.
GoDaddy is just one of many web hosting companies that registers your desired domain name (if available) and offers hosting services for a monthly subscription fee.
There are thousands and thousands of companies offering such services and the competition to gain customers is becoming fierce. Afterall, its an attractive business model with customers paying an on-going fee and relatively low running costs. Customer turnover is low because once a customer has parked his/her website to a hosting company, they feel it is troublesome to change. The competition is fierce to win over customers while it is still cheap to do so.
An analogy sometimes used is trench warfare. In trench warfare (most common in World War 1), armies on both sides would dig deep trenches to position their troops and try to move forward and gain ground towards each other in the midst of heavy gun fire and artillery. Once the trenches are dug and the positions are established, it becomes exponentially harder to gain ground. In a similar fashion, web hosting companies are seeing the growing competition and is trying to establish the best position now.
Beside GoDaddy there are many other strong web hosting companies that are fighting it out as this industry consolidates. Among them are Yahoo Domains, 1and1 and Network Solutions. Have you noticed Yahoo's strategic placement of Yahoo Domain Ads on their front page? This is a sure sign of how seriously Yahoo views this portion of their business.
Saturday, February 19, 2005
A New Asian Crisis: A shortage of Girls
I just read an interesting and amusing chapter from Jim Rogers' book Adventure Capitalist regarding a new crisis developing in Asia. In particular, China and South Korea. Here are excerpts from the chapter:
"Thoughout history, Mother Nature has skewed birth figures in favor of boys, roughly 51 to 49 percent"
"Today, throughout the world, for the first time in history, people, for cultural and economic reasons, are purposely having fewer children. It costs a lot of money to have children, and the time and energy children require put a serious strain on the modern married couple's freedom. Many nations, for different reasons -e.g., socially engineering themselves out of a population crisis- are actively working toward lowering their birthrates. In China until recently, it was official policy."
"In Korea, couples are having fewer children for personal rather than social reasons - they are doing so voluntarily rather than under pressure from the government- but the results are no different from those in China, where the ratio for current births is 117 boys to every 100 girls"
"You have a child, it's a boy, you stop. Even if those with a boy try again, half the second children are boys. That alone skews the population. You have a girl, you try again: if the second child is a boy, you stop. If the second child is a girl? Numerous girls are given up for adoption. But many couples, using sonogram technology, especially when it comes to a second child, simply abort the females."
"Where is all this leading? One thousand years ago, at the turn of the last millennium, for a variety of reasons - principally because girls were seen as a drag on the economy - the same situation arose in Europe. There were more men than women in the population. And girls suddenly became very valuable.....I believe that today's twelve-year-old Korean girl, in a decade or so, is going to realize she can have almost anything she wants."
Through his unconventional observation. Jim Rogers decided to invest in companies that manufactured birth control pills because equivalent companies in the US skyrocketed after women began using the pill.
What happens in a society when women have a lot of power and choice? One is many will choose to marry later and delay having children. With many in the workforce with an income and no commitments, they will choose to experience things that their mothers did not- pamper themselves, travel and spend money on designer clothing and accessories.
Spas, women's designer labels and beauty products are some areas that are poised to benefit from these trends. As an investor, these are areas that I have begun to pay more attention to.
"Thoughout history, Mother Nature has skewed birth figures in favor of boys, roughly 51 to 49 percent"
"Today, throughout the world, for the first time in history, people, for cultural and economic reasons, are purposely having fewer children. It costs a lot of money to have children, and the time and energy children require put a serious strain on the modern married couple's freedom. Many nations, for different reasons -e.g., socially engineering themselves out of a population crisis- are actively working toward lowering their birthrates. In China until recently, it was official policy."
"In Korea, couples are having fewer children for personal rather than social reasons - they are doing so voluntarily rather than under pressure from the government- but the results are no different from those in China, where the ratio for current births is 117 boys to every 100 girls"
"You have a child, it's a boy, you stop. Even if those with a boy try again, half the second children are boys. That alone skews the population. You have a girl, you try again: if the second child is a boy, you stop. If the second child is a girl? Numerous girls are given up for adoption. But many couples, using sonogram technology, especially when it comes to a second child, simply abort the females."
"Where is all this leading? One thousand years ago, at the turn of the last millennium, for a variety of reasons - principally because girls were seen as a drag on the economy - the same situation arose in Europe. There were more men than women in the population. And girls suddenly became very valuable.....I believe that today's twelve-year-old Korean girl, in a decade or so, is going to realize she can have almost anything she wants."
Through his unconventional observation. Jim Rogers decided to invest in companies that manufactured birth control pills because equivalent companies in the US skyrocketed after women began using the pill.
What happens in a society when women have a lot of power and choice? One is many will choose to marry later and delay having children. With many in the workforce with an income and no commitments, they will choose to experience things that their mothers did not- pamper themselves, travel and spend money on designer clothing and accessories.
Spas, women's designer labels and beauty products are some areas that are poised to benefit from these trends. As an investor, these are areas that I have begun to pay more attention to.
Thursday, February 17, 2005
Where are the jobs?
One of my favorite analysts Charles Payne from Wall Street Strategies had a quote today:
"On the topic of interest rates, we could be getting set up for another round of Fed speculation when the next jobs report is released. This morning, the initial jobless claims report indicated that only 302,000 folks filed for unemployment benefits last week. This number is extremely low, and coupled with the trend over the last six weeks, one has to believe we are going to see a huge jobs report real soon. By the way, I don't buy this notion that so many people are out of the jobs market, and they simply aren't looking for jobs according to the pundits. Instead, I think people are working in so many non-traditional ways that it isn't being captured on traditional radars."
I believe Charles hit the nail in the head with this one. Many people in America today are finding work in non-traditional ways and the old metrics and systems that the government uses do not capture them. For starters, many people now work from home running their own businesses. These people earn their living and do not claim unemployment benefits. One example are the numerous number of people running successful online stores through eBay.
There is no doubt in my mind that this trend will continue as the traditional paradigm of working for large corporations (usually for life) shifts to a more individualistic paradigm. This trend is further accelerated by the mass layoffs we have witnessed in many industries.
How can we benefit from this trend from an investment point of view? I believe online advertising will continue to grow at phenomenal rates. The publicly traded companies standing to benefit the most at this moment are Google, Yahoo and eBay. Their advertising revenues are increasing every quarter.
Have you noticed that Google's revenues have almost caught up to Yahoos at over 3 billion! Given that Yahoo is still increasing revenues, this illustrates exactly the trend that I'm talking about.
"On the topic of interest rates, we could be getting set up for another round of Fed speculation when the next jobs report is released. This morning, the initial jobless claims report indicated that only 302,000 folks filed for unemployment benefits last week. This number is extremely low, and coupled with the trend over the last six weeks, one has to believe we are going to see a huge jobs report real soon. By the way, I don't buy this notion that so many people are out of the jobs market, and they simply aren't looking for jobs according to the pundits. Instead, I think people are working in so many non-traditional ways that it isn't being captured on traditional radars."
I believe Charles hit the nail in the head with this one. Many people in America today are finding work in non-traditional ways and the old metrics and systems that the government uses do not capture them. For starters, many people now work from home running their own businesses. These people earn their living and do not claim unemployment benefits. One example are the numerous number of people running successful online stores through eBay.
There is no doubt in my mind that this trend will continue as the traditional paradigm of working for large corporations (usually for life) shifts to a more individualistic paradigm. This trend is further accelerated by the mass layoffs we have witnessed in many industries.
How can we benefit from this trend from an investment point of view? I believe online advertising will continue to grow at phenomenal rates. The publicly traded companies standing to benefit the most at this moment are Google, Yahoo and eBay. Their advertising revenues are increasing every quarter.
Have you noticed that Google's revenues have almost caught up to Yahoos at over 3 billion! Given that Yahoo is still increasing revenues, this illustrates exactly the trend that I'm talking about.
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
Building the life you want to live
Have you ever stopped to think about what kind of life you wish to live? Are you so busy that you haven't had quiet time to evaluate your life today and where it will be headed if it stayed on the current course?
These questions are multi dimensional but I'd like to approach them today from the perspective of a career.
How many hours do you want to spend at work daily?
How much money do you want to make? How much do you think will make you happy?
How important is your work/life balance?
After working as an employee for many years. I've come to understand myself more. I'm the type that is most motivated when I'm working for myself. Putting in the work to built up my own assets.
Working for yourself, you lose the comforts and security of a paycheck. But you get time in exchange. You can go travel for longer periods of time. You can work at night if you find yourself more productive then. You can go exercise or play tennis during the day. Manage your investments better (wink wink).
Having said that, we are only as free as our options. If you don't have significant savings and stable investments yet, you may not be in the position to become self employed....today. But if you can envision the life that you wish to live and you'd like to take control, it's never too late to start planning and saving. Freedom will always come at a price and in this case, it may be uncomfortable in the short term.
The question I'd like to leave you is this:
If your preference is to have a secure job. How secure is it really?
These questions are multi dimensional but I'd like to approach them today from the perspective of a career.
How many hours do you want to spend at work daily?
How much money do you want to make? How much do you think will make you happy?
How important is your work/life balance?
After working as an employee for many years. I've come to understand myself more. I'm the type that is most motivated when I'm working for myself. Putting in the work to built up my own assets.
Working for yourself, you lose the comforts and security of a paycheck. But you get time in exchange. You can go travel for longer periods of time. You can work at night if you find yourself more productive then. You can go exercise or play tennis during the day. Manage your investments better (wink wink).
Having said that, we are only as free as our options. If you don't have significant savings and stable investments yet, you may not be in the position to become self employed....today. But if you can envision the life that you wish to live and you'd like to take control, it's never too late to start planning and saving. Freedom will always come at a price and in this case, it may be uncomfortable in the short term.
The question I'd like to leave you is this:
If your preference is to have a secure job. How secure is it really?
Monday, February 14, 2005
Nokia on the come back?
Have you paid any attention recently to Nokia? Once the King of cell phones, they have fallen from grace in the eyes of many for losing the flip phone battle to the Korean manufacturers such as Samsung and LG.
I believe it was in January 2004 when Nokia announced in a press release that they were forecasting continued growth. Their share price in New York spiked into the $20 range. At the time, I was noticing around me the growing number of Korean flip phones offered in the market and how all the hip teenagers carried a Samsung with fancy face plates and bright flashing LEDs. I could not recall any new Nokia phones coming out or any friends owning a new Nokia phone. I could not understand how Nokia was backing their claims.
I thought, Nokia must be doing well in Europe. After all, Europeans tend to be protective of their brands and support them patriotically. Plus, I've made some good money on Nokia before so I should not doubt them. With that rationale, I loaded up on some shares at around $19 a share.
April 2004 came around quickly and Nokia suddenly issued an earnings warning and that they were losing market share! The stock was hit hard. What a scam I thought! How could they suddenly warn after making a growth forecast just 3 months earlier. I took the loss and learned a valuable lesson for myself- which was to notice the trends around me and invest accordingly. Nothing could be more accurate sometimes.
My point of this post was not just to tell you about what happened last year, but also to share some of my thoughts about Nokia and why it may be a good buy at this point.
Stay tuned for some of my thoughts on the other giant named Motorola, the inventor of the original Star Tac flip phone.
I believe it was in January 2004 when Nokia announced in a press release that they were forecasting continued growth. Their share price in New York spiked into the $20 range. At the time, I was noticing around me the growing number of Korean flip phones offered in the market and how all the hip teenagers carried a Samsung with fancy face plates and bright flashing LEDs. I could not recall any new Nokia phones coming out or any friends owning a new Nokia phone. I could not understand how Nokia was backing their claims.
I thought, Nokia must be doing well in Europe. After all, Europeans tend to be protective of their brands and support them patriotically. Plus, I've made some good money on Nokia before so I should not doubt them. With that rationale, I loaded up on some shares at around $19 a share.
April 2004 came around quickly and Nokia suddenly issued an earnings warning and that they were losing market share! The stock was hit hard. What a scam I thought! How could they suddenly warn after making a growth forecast just 3 months earlier. I took the loss and learned a valuable lesson for myself- which was to notice the trends around me and invest accordingly. Nothing could be more accurate sometimes.
My point of this post was not just to tell you about what happened last year, but also to share some of my thoughts about Nokia and why it may be a good buy at this point.
- Nokia is a recognized and trusted brand name. They may have missed out on the flip phone war in the last two years but it's not rocket science to make them. They can catch back up easily with a few new offerings. They already have many new phones in the pipeline.
- They are a solid company with solid earnings and low price to earnings ratio and low price to book ratio
- They are determined to be great again after being slapped in the face by their complacency when at the top of the mountain
Stay tuned for some of my thoughts on the other giant named Motorola, the inventor of the original Star Tac flip phone.
Sunday, February 13, 2005
Jim Rogers - Adventure Capitalist
I'm currently reading Jim Rogers' book entitled "Adventure Capitalist". Jim Rogers is a very successful investor who retired at 37 after making a fortune in the stock market. He believes that life is more than just money and he wanted to experience life as much as possible having earned the option to do so with his fortunes.
He and his fiance Paige took a 3 year trip to travel across the world in a modified Mercedes SLK / G-Wagon. See www.jimrogers.com. It's unreal! This guy drove this bright bumble bee yellow sports convertible with big wheels around the world! How could he not get robbed and killed just from the attention alone!
Did I mention that Paige is a beautiful young lady who is the daughter of one of Jim's clients? He asked Paige to travel around the world with him on their first date. Good stuff.
Jim is an insightful investor and one of his goals while traveling was to find good investment opportunities. He can see a place for what it is from the ground up.
I'll be certain to share with you the most interesting stories from this facinating book. Stay tuned.
"Hello World"
Hello World! Welcome to my new blog on anything to do with investing! On this blog, I will share with you my thoughts and experiences, things that I read, news items that are of interest and even specific stocks that I trade.
As of today, I have been working in the high tech industry for 7 years and been investing in the stock market for most of those years. A lot of what I write here would naturally have to do with technology. What are the future trends in technology? Where can we invest to benefit from those trends? To these questions and lots more I hope to give my 2 cents. This will be lots of fun.
I hope you will enjoy my blog and come back often. Feel free to add your comments and thoughts too!
As of today, I have been working in the high tech industry for 7 years and been investing in the stock market for most of those years. A lot of what I write here would naturally have to do with technology. What are the future trends in technology? Where can we invest to benefit from those trends? To these questions and lots more I hope to give my 2 cents. This will be lots of fun.
I hope you will enjoy my blog and come back often. Feel free to add your comments and thoughts too!
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