Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Getting a little short

I haven't been making major trades and also have been staying low in trading.

The markets have been meandering back and forth. A terrible environment to trade except for scalping small hourly gains. Without any real trending in the broad markets, this environment has been very unfriendly for gains.

I am however getting a little short putting on small positions in skf and sds. The SPX rallied past resistance at 876 today after the FED announcement but the rally quickly faded. The risk/reward is now pointing slightly more to the down side.

I would caution however that the markets are churning back and forth. Put tight stops on positions and don't be worried about small losses if they are triggered.

Big money is made on the big moves and they will more than cover the small losses.

Stress test results are coming up on May 4. And I expect a sell off on the banks before the news from fear that some of them will required more funding.

Monday, April 06, 2009

Backing and filling

I am not trading this market.

I am holding my core positions in oil and ag. aet.un and VT.

I also hold a trading position in gold. In kgc and au. Gold has taken a bit of a beating the last 3 days but I believe it is oversold and any meaningful pullback in the markets will see a big rebound in gold.

Otherwise trading in this market has been difficult. I have been trying to play the short side with SKF but the market has refused to go down so far. Last hour of trading has also seen much program trading pull the markets up. I've been taking small losses on SKF daily as I don't want to hold it overnight, but I am ready to pull the trigger and long SKF whenever there is indication that the market is ready for a fall.

Friday, April 03, 2009

Bulls power over the bears

The markets gapped up in the morning and continued moving up until the afternoon until what looked like there might be a sell off. The markets tried to push through 845 on the S&P and when failed seesawed in to the close. A mild sell off in to the close about 15 minutes before close.

A rather tough day for me. I held small positions on two ultra shorts overnight and they both gapped down after the announcement that Mark to market accounting was going to be eased. SKF and SRS. I managed to half my losses in SKF by doubling down on dips. With SRS however I was not as lucky as it kept falling losing 9% when I had to cut my losses. SKF had resistance as financial firms tried to sell off.

On a day when financials are the reasons the market is up. The financials themselves sold off which everything else powered up.

On a brighter note. I sold my GOLD in KGC and AU just before market close the day before. I noticed weak volume in the GDX as it reached the top of the recent trading channel. This morning, GDX sold off hard to the bottom on that very channel where I picked up my shares in KGC and AU again. 

After market, RIMM announced earnings and it was better than expected. The shares powered to $60 after market. I think this is way over done and suspect RIMM may have 'stuffed the channel' with products. They have also been aggressively pushing products such as the CURVE for free with contract. I am going to start a short on RIMM when markets re open.