Obama bounce not happening. Indexes look like they are going to retest the lows and very possibly pierce them. Everyone needs to be exposed to the short side. Whether as a hedge to long term holds or to profit from the downside.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
15th of January today. Obama's inauguration is only 5 days away. The markets are anticipating an Obama bounce. Much like the one when he won the election. Will this happen? I think it is very likely. For one thing, he's a great talker and has a way of instilling confidence in people. Seconly, the markets have sold off fairly hard the last 6 trading days so that sets up a perfect back drop for a few days of rally. If the markets don't pickup by Friday. It certaily will by Monday. Further, Citi is releasing their earnings early tomorrow and I believe the markets will rally because it has already priced in the worst in the short term. So I would cover any financial shorts. After Obama's inauguration, it is very hard to say. Will the markets continue to rally for a few more days or sell off on the news? I wish I knew the answer!
Friday, January 09, 2009
So far in 2009, currency trends feel like they are on 'reset'. The trends that have worked in the second half of 2008 are no longer working. Then, currency strengths were JPY>USD>EUR>GBP. So far this year, the cross rates have been in flux and difficult to grasp. So far for the first few trading days of the year, the strengths are AUD>CAD>EUR>USD>GBP>JPY.