Thursday, April 21, 2005

Whiplash

Feeling some pain in the back of your neck? That's how I feel after the whipsaw action in the markets this week. Down big one day and then up big the next. If you are trying to time this market - good luck. I don't think anyone can and I pity the TV commentators who have to change their tone everyday. Sounding bullish on one and bearish on another. What I don't like are analysts who caution viewers not to buy after a bad day and then say 'I told you to buy' after an up day.

A recap of the whipsaw action the past five trading days:

Friday - Markets down big. DOW down 191 pts, Nasdaq down 40 pts. This was capitulation but many thought this was only the first stage of capitulation and that a second and final sell off would take the DOW down to 9800 pts.

Monday - Markets ended flat. The bounce that some predicted did not happen. Maybe this was just a break before the second leg down.

Tuesday - UP day! DOW up over 50 pts and Nasdaq up 20pts. Maybe we are out of the woods? Maybe the bottom has been reached on Friday.......but wait...

Wednesday - SELL! Big down day. DOW down 115 pts and Nasdaq down 20 pts.

Thursday - HUGE up day! Biggest up day since the year 2003. DOW up 206 pts and Nasdaq up 48 pts!

What is going on? Are you feeling dizzy yet? Pessimism was rampant in March with fears of inflation, rising Fed rates, decreasing corporate profits. Negativity everywhere. IBM's poor earnings and apples estimates miss last week were oil on fire.

This week, Intel had great earnings. Followed by Yahoo, EMC and Google. These companies beat estimates and raised guidance. Hey, maybe the economy ain't so bad after all?

I'm excited to see what tomorrow brings.

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