Thursday, April 14, 2005

Bitter Sweet Apple Earnings

What a tough market. Apple reported earnings after market close yesterday beating estimates and showing sequential growth and higher revenues. But Apple stocks fall and are now trading at $37 falling from $41 before earnings release.

Sometimes, markets are all about expectations and reality and where the two meet. When a stock has low expectations but releases good numbers in reality, it rises. In the case of Apple, expectations have ballooned so big that even a great reality is not great enough. So the stock sells off.

I believe the core of the issue is that although ipod sales have gone up 16%, profit margins have fallen 16%. This means that although they are selling more, they are having to reduce prices to do so. In addition, the halo effect of ipod owners buying MACs have not yet materialized with MAC sales increasing only 2%.

Sit tight, this apple ride is very bumpy.

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